Bundesliga – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 12:00Volkswagen ArenaNot started
Wolfsburg
6th • 17 Pts
Bayern
1st • 27 Pts
Prediction Summary
30%
WOB Win
range 26%–35%
28%
Draw
range 26%–29%
42%
FCB Win
range 37%–47%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: WOB 1.20 · FCB 1.46
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Wolfsburg | Bayern | |
|---|---|---|
| 1399 | Elo rating | 1625 |
| W-L-W-D-D | Form (last 5) | W-D-W-D-W |
| 1.10 | Goals for / game | 1.90 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 1.02 | xG for / game | 1.70 |
| 1.61 | xG against / game | 1.12 |
| 29% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 33% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Wolfsburg
- P. DuboisDoubtful
Bayern
- W. KaneDoubtful
- V. GarcíaDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Wolfsburg Elo 1399 vs Bayern 1625 (-226).
- Recent Form: Wolfsburg (W-L-W-D-D) vs Bayern (W-D-W-D-W), last 5.
- Goals: Wolfsburg score 1.10 / concede 2.00 per game; Bayern 1.90 / 1.00 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Wolfsburg average 1.02 xG, Bayern 1.70 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Wolfsburg have won 29% of home games in the sample; Bayern 33% away.
- Player Availability: Wolfsburg: 1 absent/doubtful; Bayern: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Wolfsburg 8 days rest, Bayern 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -2.60 for Wolfsburg over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)53%
- Home Advantage33%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)9%
- Expected Goals (xG)3%
- Recent Form2%
- Player Availability1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 06:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.