Today's MatchesMon, Nov 9, 2026
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La Liga – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 12:00Sánchez-PizjuánNot started
Sevilla
8th • 14 Pts
Barcelona
2nd • 22 Pts
Prediction Summary
30%
SEV Win
range 26%–35%
28%
Draw
range 26%–29%
42%
BAR Win
range 37%–47%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: SEV 1.20 · BAR 1.46
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Sevilla Elo 1356 vs Barcelona 1587 (-232).
- Recent Form: Sevilla (W-D-L-L-D) vs Barcelona (L-W-W-D-L), last 5.
- Goals: Sevilla score 0.70 / concede 1.80 per game; Barcelona 1.50 / 1.10 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Sevilla average 0.91 xG, Barcelona 1.40 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Sevilla have won 33% of home games in the sample; Barcelona 43% away.
- Player Availability: Sevilla: 1 absent/doubtful; Barcelona: 0.
- Schedule & Rest: Sevilla 8 days rest, Barcelona 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -2.40 for Sevilla over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 06:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
Model Performance
Demo46.3%1X2 accuracy
- Correct: 37
- Incorrect: 43
- Total: 80
Brier
0.639
Log Loss
1.059
Calib. error
0.042
Walk-forward backtest on simulated demo matches. Lower Brier/log loss is better; a uniform guess scores 0.667 / 1.099.
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)53%
- Home Advantage33%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)9%
- Recent Form3%
- Player Availability1%
- Expected Goals (xG)1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Recent Prediction Results
All →| Match | Pick | p | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW v TOT | Home | 36% | 4–1 | |
| OL v NIC | Home | 43% | 1–2 | |
| VFB v SGE | Home | 55% | 4–1 | |
| ATA v ROM | Home | 42% | 1–2 | |
| VIL v RSO | Home | 42% | 1–0 |
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.