Bundesliga – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 14:30Europa-Park StadionNot started
Freiburg
7th • 15 Pts
Dortmund
2nd • 27 Pts
Prediction Summary
30%
SCF Win
range 25%–35%
28%
Draw
range 26%–29%
42%
BVB Win
range 37%–48%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: SCF 1.19 · BVB 1.46
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Freiburg | Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| 1385 | Elo rating | 1619 |
| L-W-L-L-L | Form (last 5) | W-W-W-W-L |
| 1.60 | Goals for / game | 2.00 |
| 2.10 | Goals against / game | 1.30 |
| 1.51 | xG for / game | 1.65 |
| 1.78 | xG against / game | 1.18 |
| 29% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 48% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Freiburg
- X. LopezDoubtful
Dortmund
- X. SchmidtInjury
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Freiburg Elo 1385 vs Dortmund 1619 (-234).
- Recent Form: Freiburg (L-W-L-L-L) vs Dortmund (W-W-W-W-L), last 5.
- Goals: Freiburg score 1.60 / concede 2.10 per game; Dortmund 2.00 / 1.30 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Freiburg average 1.51 xG, Dortmund 1.65 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Freiburg have won 29% of home games in the sample; Dortmund 48% away.
- Player Availability: Freiburg: 1 absent/doubtful; Dortmund: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Freiburg 8 days rest, Dortmund 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -1.20 for Freiburg over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)54%
- Home Advantage32%
- Recent Form6%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)5%
- Expected Goals (xG)2%
- Player Availability1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 08:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.