Bundesliga – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 16:00Deutsche Bank ParkNot started
Frankfurt
8th • 11 Pts
Leverkusen
5th • 17 Pts
Prediction Summary
34%
SGE Win
range 29%–39%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
38%
B04 Win
range 33%–43%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: SGE 1.27 · B04 1.37
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Frankfurt | Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|
| 1325 | Elo rating | 1564 |
| L-W-L-W-L | Form (last 5) | L-L-D-D-D |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 0.90 |
| 1.70 | Goals against / game | 1.20 |
| 0.95 | xG for / game | 1.01 |
| 1.42 | xG against / game | 1.16 |
| 5% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 48% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Frankfurt
No reported absences.
Leverkusen
No reported absences.
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Frankfurt Elo 1325 vs Leverkusen 1564 (-240).
- Recent Form: Frankfurt (L-W-L-W-L) vs Leverkusen (L-L-D-D-D), last 5.
- Goals: Frankfurt score 1.00 / concede 1.70 per game; Leverkusen 0.90 / 1.20 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Frankfurt average 0.95 xG, Leverkusen 1.01 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Frankfurt have won 5% of home games in the sample; Leverkusen 48% away.
- Player Availability: Frankfurt: 0 absent/doubtful; Leverkusen: 0.
- Schedule & Rest: Frankfurt 8 days rest, Leverkusen 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -1.20 for Frankfurt over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)50%
- Home Advantage30%
- Recent Form9%
- Expected Goals (xG)7%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)5%
- Player Availability0%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 10:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.