Bundesliga – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 19:30MHPArenaNot started
Stuttgart
3rd • 26 Pts
Leipzig
4th • 19 Pts
Prediction Summary
42%
VFB Win
range 37%–48%
28%
Draw
range 26%–29%
30%
RBL Win
range 25%–35%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: VFB 1.47 · RBL 1.19
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Stuttgart | Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|
| 1553 | Elo rating | 1585 |
| W-D-D-D-W | Form (last 5) | L-L-L-L-W |
| 1.70 | Goals for / game | 1.40 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 1.10 |
| 1.53 | xG for / game | 1.26 |
| 1.20 | xG against / game | 1.14 |
| 48% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 43% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Stuttgart
No reported absences.
Leipzig
- C. BianchiSuspension
- J. LopezDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Stuttgart Elo 1553 vs Leipzig 1585 (-32).
- Recent Form: Stuttgart (W-D-D-D-W) vs Leipzig (L-L-L-L-W), last 5.
- Goals: Stuttgart score 1.70 / concede 1.20 per game; Leipzig 1.40 / 1.10 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Stuttgart average 1.53 xG, Leipzig 1.26 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Stuttgart have won 48% of home games in the sample; Leipzig 43% away.
- Player Availability: Stuttgart: 0 absent/doubtful; Leipzig: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Stuttgart 8 days rest, Leipzig 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -2.20 for Stuttgart over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage53%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)14%
- Recent Form12%
- Team Strength (Elo)12%
- Expected Goals (xG)6%
- Player Availability3%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 13:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.