Bundesliga – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 12:00Allianz ArenaNot started
Bayern
1st • 27 Pts
Freiburg
7th • 15 Pts
Prediction Summary
58%
FCB Win
range 53%–63%
24%
Draw
range 22%–26%
18%
SCF Win
range 14%–21%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 11% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: FCB 1.86 · SCF 0.94
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
Under 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS – Yes
52%
BTTS – No
48%
Team Comparison
| Bayern | Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 1625 | Elo rating | 1385 |
| W-D-W-D-W | Form (last 5) | L-W-L-L-L |
| 1.90 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game | 2.10 |
| 1.70 | xG for / game | 1.51 |
| 1.12 | xG against / game | 1.78 |
| 62% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 38% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Bayern
No reported absences.
Freiburg
- P. MoreauDoubtful
- B. MüllerInjury
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Bayern Elo 1625 vs Freiburg 1385 (+240).
- Recent Form: Bayern (W-D-W-D-W) vs Freiburg (L-W-L-L-L), last 5.
- Goals: Bayern score 1.90 / concede 1.00 per game; Freiburg 1.60 / 2.10 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Bayern average 1.70 xG, Freiburg 1.51 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Bayern have won 62% of home games in the sample; Freiburg 38% away.
- Player Availability: Bayern: 0 absent/doubtful; Freiburg: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Bayern 11 days rest, Freiburg 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +1.20 for Bayern over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)55%
- Home Advantage32%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)5%
- Recent Form5%
- Player Availability2%
- Expected Goals (xG)1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 06:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.