Bundesliga – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 14:30Volkswagen ArenaNot started
Wolfsburg
6th • 17 Pts
Frankfurt
8th • 11 Pts
Prediction Summary
45%
WOB Win
range 40%–51%
27%
Draw
range 26%–29%
27%
SGE Win
range 23%–32%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: WOB 1.53 · SGE 1.14
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Wolfsburg | Frankfurt | |
|---|---|---|
| 1399 | Elo rating | 1325 |
| W-L-W-D-D | Form (last 5) | L-W-L-W-L |
| 1.10 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game | 1.70 |
| 1.02 | xG for / game | 0.95 |
| 1.61 | xG against / game | 1.42 |
| 29% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 29% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Wolfsburg
- C. MüllerDoubtful
- W. LopezInjury
Frankfurt
- A. FernandesDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Wolfsburg Elo 1399 vs Frankfurt 1325 (+74).
- Recent Form: Wolfsburg (W-L-W-D-D) vs Frankfurt (L-W-L-W-L), last 5.
- Goals: Wolfsburg score 1.10 / concede 2.00 per game; Frankfurt 1.00 / 1.70 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Wolfsburg average 1.02 xG, Frankfurt 0.95 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Wolfsburg have won 29% of home games in the sample; Frankfurt 29% away.
- Player Availability: Wolfsburg: 2 absent/doubtful; Frankfurt: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Wolfsburg 11 days rest, Frankfurt 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -0.40 for Wolfsburg over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage56%
- Team Strength (Elo)29%
- Expected Goals (xG)8%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)3%
- Player Availability2%
- Recent Form2%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 08:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.