Bundesliga – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 16:00Signal Iduna ParkNot started
Dortmund
2nd • 27 Pts
Stuttgart
3rd • 26 Pts
Prediction Summary
46%
BVB Win
range 41%–51%
27%
Draw
range 26%–29%
27%
VFB Win
range 23%–31%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: BVB 1.55 · VFB 1.13
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Dortmund | Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|
| 1619 | Elo rating | 1553 |
| W-W-W-W-L | Form (last 5) | W-D-D-D-W |
| 2.00 | Goals for / game | 1.70 |
| 1.30 | Goals against / game | 1.20 |
| 1.65 | xG for / game | 1.53 |
| 1.18 | xG against / game | 1.20 |
| 81% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 33% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Dortmund
- I. MüllerInjury
Stuttgart
- R. DuboisDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Dortmund Elo 1619 vs Stuttgart 1553 (+66).
- Recent Form: Dortmund (W-W-W-W-L) vs Stuttgart (W-D-D-D-W), last 5.
- Goals: Dortmund score 2.00 / concede 1.30 per game; Stuttgart 1.70 / 1.20 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Dortmund average 1.65 xG, Stuttgart 1.53 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Dortmund have won 81% of home games in the sample; Stuttgart 33% away.
- Player Availability: Dortmund: 1 absent/doubtful; Stuttgart: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Dortmund 11 days rest, Stuttgart 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -0.80 for Dortmund over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage58%
- Team Strength (Elo)27%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)6%
- Recent Form5%
- Expected Goals (xG)3%
- Player Availability1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 10:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.