Bundesliga – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 19:30BayArenaNot started
Leverkusen
5th • 17 Pts
Leipzig
4th • 19 Pts
Prediction Summary
41%
B04 Win
range 36%–47%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
31%
RBL Win
range 26%–36%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: B04 1.44 · RBL 1.21
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Leverkusen | Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|
| 1564 | Elo rating | 1585 |
| L-L-D-D-D | Form (last 5) | L-L-L-L-W |
| 0.90 | Goals for / game | 1.40 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 1.10 |
| 1.01 | xG for / game | 1.26 |
| 1.16 | xG against / game | 1.14 |
| 57% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 43% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Leverkusen
- P. FernandesDoubtful
- A. GarcíaInjury
Leipzig
- L. RossiInjury
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Leverkusen Elo 1564 vs Leipzig 1585 (-21).
- Recent Form: Leverkusen (L-L-D-D-D) vs Leipzig (L-L-L-L-W), last 5.
- Goals: Leverkusen score 0.90 / concede 1.20 per game; Leipzig 1.40 / 1.10 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Leverkusen average 1.01 xG, Leipzig 1.26 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Leverkusen have won 57% of home games in the sample; Leipzig 43% away.
- Player Availability: Leverkusen: 2 absent/doubtful; Leipzig: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Leverkusen 11 days rest, Leipzig 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -0.40 for Leverkusen over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage75%
- Team Strength (Elo)11%
- Expected Goals (xG)5%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)4%
- Recent Form3%
- Player Availability1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 13:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.