Bundesliga – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 12:00Deutsche Bank ParkNot started
Frankfurt
8th • 11 Pts
Bayern
1st • 27 Pts
Prediction Summary
28%
SGE Win
range 23%–32%
27%
Draw
range 26%–29%
45%
FCB Win
range 40%–50%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: SGE 1.15 · FCB 1.52
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Frankfurt | Bayern | |
|---|---|---|
| 1325 | Elo rating | 1625 |
| L-W-L-W-L | Form (last 5) | W-D-W-D-W |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 1.90 |
| 1.70 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 0.95 | xG for / game | 1.70 |
| 1.42 | xG against / game | 1.12 |
| 5% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 33% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Frankfurt
- A. MartinSuspension
Bayern
No reported absences.
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Frankfurt Elo 1325 vs Bayern 1625 (-300).
- Recent Form: Frankfurt (L-W-L-W-L) vs Bayern (W-D-W-D-W), last 5.
- Goals: Frankfurt score 1.00 / concede 1.70 per game; Bayern 1.90 / 1.00 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Frankfurt average 0.95 xG, Bayern 1.70 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Frankfurt have won 5% of home games in the sample; Bayern 33% away.
- Player Availability: Frankfurt: 1 absent/doubtful; Bayern: 0.
- Schedule & Rest: Frankfurt 14 days rest, Bayern 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -1.40 for Frankfurt over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)62%
- Home Advantage29%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)5%
- Expected Goals (xG)2%
- Player Availability1%
- Recent Form1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 06:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.