Bundesliga – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 14:30MHPArenaNot started
Stuttgart
3rd • 26 Pts
Freiburg
7th • 15 Pts
Prediction Summary
53%
VFB Win
range 47%–58%
26%
Draw
range 24%–27%
22%
SCF Win
range 18%–26%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 12% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: VFB 1.71 · SCF 1.02
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
Under 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS – Yes
53%
BTTS – No
47%
Team Comparison
| Stuttgart | Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 1553 | Elo rating | 1385 |
| W-D-D-D-W | Form (last 5) | L-W-L-L-L |
| 1.70 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 2.10 |
| 1.53 | xG for / game | 1.51 |
| 1.20 | xG against / game | 1.78 |
| 48% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 38% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Stuttgart
- T. FernandesSuspension
Freiburg
No reported absences.
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Stuttgart Elo 1553 vs Freiburg 1385 (+168).
- Recent Form: Stuttgart (W-D-D-D-W) vs Freiburg (L-W-L-L-L), last 5.
- Goals: Stuttgart score 1.70 / concede 1.20 per game; Freiburg 1.60 / 2.10 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Stuttgart average 1.53 xG, Freiburg 1.51 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Stuttgart have won 48% of home games in the sample; Freiburg 38% away.
- Player Availability: Stuttgart: 1 absent/doubtful; Freiburg: 0.
- Schedule & Rest: Stuttgart 14 days rest, Freiburg 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +0.40 for Stuttgart over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)50%
- Home Advantage42%
- Recent Form3%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)2%
- Player Availability2%
- Expected Goals (xG)1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 08:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.