Bundesliga – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 16:00Red Bull ArenaNot started
Leipzig
4th • 19 Pts
Wolfsburg
6th • 17 Pts
Prediction Summary
50%
RBL Win
range 45%–55%
26%
Draw
range 25%–28%
23%
WOB Win
range 20%–28%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: RBL 1.65 · WOB 1.06
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
Under 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Leipzig | Wolfsburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 1585 | Elo rating | 1399 |
| L-L-L-L-W | Form (last 5) | W-L-W-D-D |
| 1.40 | Goals for / game | 1.10 |
| 1.10 | Goals against / game | 2.00 |
| 1.26 | xG for / game | 1.02 |
| 1.14 | xG against / game | 1.61 |
| 52% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 24% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Leipzig
- J. MoreauSuspension
- A. RossiDoubtful
Wolfsburg
- I. BianchiDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Leipzig Elo 1585 vs Wolfsburg 1399 (+186).
- Recent Form: Leipzig (L-L-L-L-W) vs Wolfsburg (W-L-W-D-D), last 5.
- Goals: Leipzig score 1.40 / concede 1.10 per game; Wolfsburg 1.10 / 2.00 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Leipzig average 1.26 xG, Wolfsburg 1.02 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Leipzig have won 52% of home games in the sample; Wolfsburg 24% away.
- Player Availability: Leipzig: 2 absent/doubtful; Wolfsburg: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Leipzig 14 days rest, Wolfsburg 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +0.40 for Leipzig over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)47%
- Home Advantage36%
- Recent Form13%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)2%
- Player Availability1%
- Expected Goals (xG)0%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 10:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.