Bundesliga – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 19:30BayArenaNot started
Leverkusen
5th • 17 Pts
Dortmund
2nd • 27 Pts
Prediction Summary
36%
B04 Win
range 31%–41%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
36%
BVB Win
range 31%–41%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: B04 1.32 · BVB 1.32
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Leverkusen | Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| 1564 | Elo rating | 1619 |
| L-L-D-D-D | Form (last 5) | W-W-W-W-L |
| 0.90 | Goals for / game | 2.00 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 1.30 |
| 1.01 | xG for / game | 1.65 |
| 1.16 | xG against / game | 1.18 |
| 57% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 48% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Leverkusen
- B. MüllerSuspension
- O. DuboisDoubtful
Dortmund
No reported absences.
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Leverkusen Elo 1564 vs Dortmund 1619 (-55).
- Recent Form: Leverkusen (L-L-D-D-D) vs Dortmund (W-W-W-W-L), last 5.
- Goals: Leverkusen score 0.90 / concede 1.20 per game; Dortmund 2.00 / 1.30 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Leverkusen average 1.01 xG, Dortmund 1.65 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Leverkusen have won 57% of home games in the sample; Dortmund 48% away.
- Player Availability: Leverkusen: 2 absent/doubtful; Dortmund: 0.
- Schedule & Rest: Leverkusen 14 days rest, Dortmund 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -1.20 for Leverkusen over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage50%
- Team Strength (Elo)19%
- Recent Form14%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)8%
- Expected Goals (xG)7%
- Player Availability3%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 13:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.