Premier League – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 13:00Amex StadiumNot started
Brighton
7th • 16 Pts
Arsenal
4th • 20 Pts
Prediction Summary
35%
BHA Win
range 30%–40%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
37%
ARS Win
range 32%–42%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: BHA 1.30 · ARS 1.35
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Brighton | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| 1425 | Elo rating | 1624 |
| W-W-L-L-W | Form (last 5) | W-W-W-W-L |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 1.10 |
| 0.90 | Goals against / game | 1.10 |
| 1.06 | xG for / game | 1.02 |
| 1.04 | xG against / game | 1.11 |
| 29% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 52% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Brighton
- D. LopezSuspension
- F. FernandesInjury
Arsenal
- M. SmithInjury
- D. CostaSuspension
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Brighton Elo 1425 vs Arsenal 1624 (-199).
- Recent Form: Brighton (W-W-L-L-W) vs Arsenal (W-W-W-W-L), last 5.
- Goals: Brighton score 1.00 / concede 0.90 per game; Arsenal 1.10 / 1.10 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Brighton average 1.06 xG, Arsenal 1.02 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Brighton have won 29% of home games in the sample; Arsenal 52% away.
- Player Availability: Brighton: 2 absent/doubtful; Arsenal: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Brighton 8 days rest, Arsenal 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -0.80 for Brighton over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)49%
- Home Advantage35%
- Expected Goals (xG)11%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)4%
- Recent Form0%
- Player Availability0%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 07:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
Go Premium
Unlock detailed analysis, more leagues, advanced statistics and full model breakdowns.
Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.