Premier League – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 15:30Villa ParkNot started
Aston Villa
8th • 7 Pts
Liverpool
2nd • 25 Pts
Prediction Summary
31%
AVL Win
range 26%–35%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
42%
LIV Win
range 37%–47%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: AVL 1.21 · LIV 1.45
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Aston Villa | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| 1328 | Elo rating | 1601 |
| D-L-W-L-L | Form (last 5) | L-L-L-L-W |
| 0.70 | Goals for / game | 1.40 |
| 1.70 | Goals against / game | 1.60 |
| 0.86 | xG for / game | 1.34 |
| 1.50 | xG against / game | 1.37 |
| 33% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 52% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Aston Villa
- F. SchmidtDoubtful
- T. SmithInjury
Liverpool
- X. BianchiDoubtful
- L. DuboisDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Aston Villa Elo 1328 vs Liverpool 1601 (-273).
- Recent Form: Aston Villa (D-L-W-L-L) vs Liverpool (L-L-L-L-W), last 5.
- Goals: Aston Villa score 0.70 / concede 1.70 per game; Liverpool 1.40 / 1.60 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Aston Villa average 0.86 xG, Liverpool 1.34 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Aston Villa have won 33% of home games in the sample; Liverpool 52% away.
- Player Availability: Aston Villa: 2 absent/doubtful; Liverpool: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Aston Villa 8 days rest, Liverpool 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -1.60 for Aston Villa over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)55%
- Home Advantage28%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)6%
- Recent Form6%
- Expected Goals (xG)5%
- Player Availability1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 09:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.