Premier League – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 20:30St James' ParkNot started
Newcastle
6th • 17 Pts
Chelsea
1st • 31 Pts
Prediction Summary
33%
NEW Win
range 29%–38%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
38%
CHE Win
range 34%–44%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: NEW 1.27 · CHE 1.38
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Newcastle | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| 1428 | Elo rating | 1603 |
| D-L-L-W-W | Form (last 5) | L-W-L-W-W |
| 1.20 | Goals for / game | 2.50 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 1.40 |
| 1.12 | xG for / game | 1.96 |
| 1.11 | xG against / game | 1.27 |
| 29% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 43% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Newcastle
- F. SmithSuspension
Chelsea
- Q. NovakSuspension
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Newcastle Elo 1428 vs Chelsea 1603 (-175).
- Recent Form: Newcastle (D-L-L-W-W) vs Chelsea (L-W-L-W-W), last 5.
- Goals: Newcastle score 1.20 / concede 1.20 per game; Chelsea 2.50 / 1.40 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Newcastle average 1.12 xG, Chelsea 1.96 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Newcastle have won 29% of home games in the sample; Chelsea 43% away.
- Player Availability: Newcastle: 1 absent/doubtful; Chelsea: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Newcastle 8 days rest, Chelsea 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -1.40 for Newcastle over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)50%
- Home Advantage40%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)7%
- Recent Form2%
- Expected Goals (xG)0%
- Player Availability0%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 14:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.