Premier League – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 13:00Emirates StadiumNot started
Arsenal
4th • 20 Pts
Aston Villa
8th • 7 Pts
Prediction Summary
60%
ARS Win
range 54%–65%
24%
Draw
range 22%–25%
17%
AVL Win
range 14%–20%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 11% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: ARS 1.90 · AVL 0.92
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
Under 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS – Yes
52%
BTTS – No
48%
Team Comparison
| Arsenal | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 1624 | Elo rating | 1328 |
| W-W-W-W-L | Form (last 5) | D-L-W-L-L |
| 1.10 | Goals for / game | 0.70 |
| 1.10 | Goals against / game | 1.70 |
| 1.02 | xG for / game | 0.86 |
| 1.11 | xG against / game | 1.50 |
| 57% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 5% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Arsenal
No reported absences.
Aston Villa
- A. CostaInjury
- K. CostaDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Arsenal Elo 1624 vs Aston Villa 1328 (+296).
- Recent Form: Arsenal (W-W-W-W-L) vs Aston Villa (D-L-W-L-L), last 5.
- Goals: Arsenal score 1.10 / concede 1.10 per game; Aston Villa 0.70 / 1.70 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Arsenal average 1.02 xG, Aston Villa 0.86 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Arsenal have won 57% of home games in the sample; Aston Villa 5% away.
- Player Availability: Arsenal: 0 absent/doubtful; Aston Villa: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Arsenal 11 days rest, Aston Villa 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +1.40 for Arsenal over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)57%
- Home Advantage27%
- Expected Goals (xG)6%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)5%
- Recent Form3%
- Player Availability1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 07:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.