Premier League – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 15:30Amex StadiumNot started
Brighton
7th • 16 Pts
Tottenham
5th • 19 Pts
Prediction Summary
40%
BHA Win
range 35%–45%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
32%
TOT Win
range 28%–37%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: BHA 1.40 · TOT 1.24
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Brighton | Tottenham | |
|---|---|---|
| 1425 | Elo rating | 1505 |
| W-W-L-L-W | Form (last 5) | L-L-W-W-L |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 1.30 |
| 0.90 | Goals against / game | 1.40 |
| 1.06 | xG for / game | 1.13 |
| 1.04 | xG against / game | 1.30 |
| 29% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 29% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Brighton
- M. KaneInjury
- S. CostaDoubtful
Tottenham
- P. FernandesDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Brighton Elo 1425 vs Tottenham 1505 (-80).
- Recent Form: Brighton (W-W-L-L-W) vs Tottenham (L-L-W-W-L), last 5.
- Goals: Brighton score 1.00 / concede 0.90 per game; Tottenham 1.30 / 1.40 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Brighton average 1.06 xG, Tottenham 1.13 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Brighton have won 29% of home games in the sample; Tottenham 29% away.
- Player Availability: Brighton: 2 absent/doubtful; Tottenham: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Brighton 11 days rest, Tottenham 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -1.60 for Brighton over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage46%
- Team Strength (Elo)26%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)10%
- Expected Goals (xG)8%
- Recent Form8%
- Player Availability2%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 09:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.