Premier League – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 17:00AnfieldNot started
Liverpool
2nd • 25 Pts
Newcastle
6th • 17 Pts
Prediction Summary
50%
LIV Win
range 45%–55%
26%
Draw
range 25%–28%
24%
NEW Win
range 20%–28%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: LIV 1.64 · NEW 1.06
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
Under 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Liverpool | Newcastle | |
|---|---|---|
| 1601 | Elo rating | 1428 |
| L-L-L-L-W | Form (last 5) | D-L-L-W-W |
| 1.40 | Goals for / game | 1.20 |
| 1.60 | Goals against / game | 1.20 |
| 1.34 | xG for / game | 1.12 |
| 1.37 | xG against / game | 1.11 |
| 52% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 24% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Liverpool
No reported absences.
Newcastle
- P. SchmidtDoubtful
- I. SchmidtDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Liverpool Elo 1601 vs Newcastle 1428 (+173).
- Recent Form: Liverpool (L-L-L-L-W) vs Newcastle (D-L-L-W-W), last 5.
- Goals: Liverpool score 1.40 / concede 1.60 per game; Newcastle 1.20 / 1.20 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Liverpool average 1.34 xG, Newcastle 1.12 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Liverpool have won 52% of home games in the sample; Newcastle 24% away.
- Player Availability: Liverpool: 0 absent/doubtful; Newcastle: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Liverpool 11 days rest, Newcastle 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +1.20 for Liverpool over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)42%
- Home Advantage34%
- Expected Goals (xG)9%
- Recent Form8%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)5%
- Player Availability1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 11:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.