Premier League – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 20:30Etihad StadiumNot started
Man City
3rd • 24 Pts
Chelsea
1st • 31 Pts
Prediction Summary
42%
MCI Win
range 37%–47%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
30%
CHE Win
range 26%–35%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: MCI 1.45 · CHE 1.20
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Man City | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| 1591 | Elo rating | 1603 |
| W-W-W-L-L | Form (last 5) | L-W-L-W-W |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 2.50 |
| 0.90 | Goals against / game | 1.40 |
| 1.10 | xG for / game | 1.96 |
| 0.91 | xG against / game | 1.27 |
| 48% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 43% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Man City
No reported absences.
Chelsea
- S. DuboisDoubtful
- M. SilvaDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Man City Elo 1591 vs Chelsea 1603 (-12).
- Recent Form: Man City (W-W-W-L-L) vs Chelsea (L-W-L-W-W), last 5.
- Goals: Man City score 1.00 / concede 0.90 per game; Chelsea 2.50 / 1.40 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Man City average 1.10 xG, Chelsea 1.96 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Man City have won 48% of home games in the sample; Chelsea 43% away.
- Player Availability: Man City: 0 absent/doubtful; Chelsea: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Man City 11 days rest, Chelsea 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +0.20 for Man City over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage76%
- Expected Goals (xG)12%
- Team Strength (Elo)6%
- Player Availability2%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)2%
- Recent Form1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 14:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
Go Premium
Unlock detailed analysis, more leagues, advanced statistics and full model breakdowns.
Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.