Premier League – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 15:30St James' ParkNot started
Newcastle
6th • 17 Pts
Aston Villa
8th • 7 Pts
Prediction Summary
50%
NEW Win
range 45%–56%
26%
Draw
range 25%–28%
23%
AVL Win
range 20%–28%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: NEW 1.65 · AVL 1.06
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
Under 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Newcastle | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 1428 | Elo rating | 1328 |
| D-L-L-W-W | Form (last 5) | D-L-W-L-L |
| 1.20 | Goals for / game | 0.70 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 1.70 |
| 1.12 | xG for / game | 0.86 |
| 1.11 | xG against / game | 1.50 |
| 29% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 5% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Newcastle
- B. BianchiDoubtful
Aston Villa
- K. KaneInjury
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Newcastle Elo 1428 vs Aston Villa 1328 (+100).
- Recent Form: Newcastle (D-L-L-W-W) vs Aston Villa (D-L-W-L-L), last 5.
- Goals: Newcastle score 1.20 / concede 1.20 per game; Aston Villa 0.70 / 1.70 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Newcastle average 1.12 xG, Aston Villa 0.86 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Newcastle have won 29% of home games in the sample; Aston Villa 5% away.
- Player Availability: Newcastle: 1 absent/doubtful; Aston Villa: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Newcastle 14 days rest, Aston Villa 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +0.80 for Newcastle over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage51%
- Team Strength (Elo)36%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)5%
- Expected Goals (xG)5%
- Recent Form2%
- Player Availability1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 09:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.