Premier League – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 17:00Stamford BridgeNot started
Chelsea
1st • 31 Pts
Brighton
7th • 16 Pts
Prediction Summary
51%
CHE Win
range 46%–57%
26%
Draw
range 25%–27%
23%
BHA Win
range 19%–27%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 12% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: CHE 1.68 · BHA 1.04
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
Under 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Chelsea | Brighton | |
|---|---|---|
| 1603 | Elo rating | 1425 |
| L-W-L-W-W | Form (last 5) | W-W-L-L-W |
| 2.50 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.40 | Goals against / game | 0.90 |
| 1.96 | xG for / game | 1.06 |
| 1.27 | xG against / game | 1.04 |
| 57% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 29% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Chelsea
- D. SilvaDoubtful
Brighton
- G. NovakInjury
- U. FernandesDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Chelsea Elo 1603 vs Brighton 1425 (+177).
- Recent Form: Chelsea (L-W-L-W-W) vs Brighton (W-W-L-L-W), last 5.
- Goals: Chelsea score 2.50 / concede 1.40 per game; Brighton 1.00 / 0.90 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Chelsea average 1.96 xG, Brighton 1.06 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Chelsea have won 57% of home games in the sample; Brighton 29% away.
- Player Availability: Chelsea: 1 absent/doubtful; Brighton: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Chelsea 14 days rest, Brighton 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -0.20 for Chelsea over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)51%
- Home Advantage41%
- Recent Form5%
- Player Availability2%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)1%
- Expected Goals (xG)1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 11:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.