Premier League – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 20:30Etihad StadiumNot started
Man City
3rd • 24 Pts
Liverpool
2nd • 25 Pts
Prediction Summary
45%
MCI Win
range 40%–51%
27%
Draw
range 26%–29%
27%
LIV Win
range 23%–32%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: MCI 1.53 · LIV 1.14
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Man City | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| 1591 | Elo rating | 1601 |
| W-W-W-L-L | Form (last 5) | L-L-L-L-W |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 1.40 |
| 0.90 | Goals against / game | 1.60 |
| 1.10 | xG for / game | 1.34 |
| 0.91 | xG against / game | 1.37 |
| 48% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 52% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Man City
- D. MartinDoubtful
Liverpool
- W. LopezDoubtful
- Z. MüllerInjury
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Man City Elo 1591 vs Liverpool 1601 (-10).
- Recent Form: Man City (W-W-W-L-L) vs Liverpool (L-L-L-L-W), last 5.
- Goals: Man City score 1.00 / concede 0.90 per game; Liverpool 1.40 / 1.60 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Man City average 1.10 xG, Liverpool 1.34 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Man City have won 48% of home games in the sample; Liverpool 52% away.
- Player Availability: Man City: 1 absent/doubtful; Liverpool: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Man City 14 days rest, Liverpool 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +0.40 for Man City over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage70%
- Recent Form13%
- Expected Goals (xG)6%
- Team Strength (Elo)5%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)4%
- Player Availability3%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 14:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.