La Liga – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 16:00AnoetaNot started
Real Sociedad
6th • 19 Pts
Atlético
5th • 19 Pts
Prediction Summary
41%
RSO Win
range 36%–46%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
32%
ATM Win
range 27%–36%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: RSO 1.42 · ATM 1.23
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Real Sociedad | Atlético | |
|---|---|---|
| 1490 | Elo rating | 1565 |
| W-L-W-W-L | Form (last 5) | L-D-D-D-D |
| 1.10 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 1.30 | Goals against / game | 1.20 |
| 1.15 | xG for / game | 1.31 |
| 1.31 | xG against / game | 1.17 |
| 48% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 48% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Real Sociedad
- O. RossiDoubtful
- Y. RossiInjury
Atlético
- X. BianchiDoubtful
- X. BianchiInjury
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Real Sociedad Elo 1490 vs Atlético 1565 (-75).
- Recent Form: Real Sociedad (W-L-W-W-L) vs Atlético (L-D-D-D-D), last 5.
- Goals: Real Sociedad score 1.10 / concede 1.30 per game; Atlético 1.50 / 1.20 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Real Sociedad average 1.15 xG, Atlético 1.31 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Real Sociedad have won 48% of home games in the sample; Atlético 48% away.
- Player Availability: Real Sociedad: 2 absent/doubtful; Atlético: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Real Sociedad 8 days rest, Atlético 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -0.60 for Real Sociedad over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage54%
- Team Strength (Elo)28%
- Recent Form14%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)4%
- Expected Goals (xG)0%
- Player Availability0%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 10:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.