La Liga – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 19:30La CerámicaNot started
Villarreal
7th • 17 Pts
Athletic
3rd • 21 Pts
Prediction Summary
43%
VIL Win
range 38%–49%
28%
Draw
range 26%–29%
29%
ATH Win
range 25%–34%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: VIL 1.49 · ATH 1.17
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Villarreal | Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| 1493 | Elo rating | 1484 |
| L-L-D-W-W | Form (last 5) | L-W-L-D-L |
| 0.80 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 0.90 | Goals against / game | 1.30 |
| 0.96 | xG for / game | 1.39 |
| 0.97 | xG against / game | 1.17 |
| 43% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 14% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Villarreal
No reported absences.
Athletic
No reported absences.
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Villarreal Elo 1493 vs Athletic 1484 (+9).
- Recent Form: Villarreal (L-L-D-W-W) vs Athletic (L-W-L-D-L), last 5.
- Goals: Villarreal score 0.80 / concede 0.90 per game; Athletic 1.50 / 1.30 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Villarreal average 0.96 xG, Athletic 1.39 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Villarreal have won 43% of home games in the sample; Athletic 14% away.
- Player Availability: Villarreal: 0 absent/doubtful; Athletic: 0.
- Schedule & Rest: Villarreal 8 days rest, Athletic 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -0.20 for Villarreal over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage78%
- Recent Form8%
- Expected Goals (xG)7%
- Team Strength (Elo)5%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)2%
- Player Availability0%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 13:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.