La Liga – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 12:00Estadi OlímpicNot started
Barcelona
2nd • 22 Pts
Betis
1st • 24 Pts
Prediction Summary
47%
BAR Win
range 42%–52%
27%
Draw
range 26%–28%
26%
BET Win
range 22%–31%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: BAR 1.57 · BET 1.11
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Barcelona | Betis | |
|---|---|---|
| 1587 | Elo rating | 1466 |
| L-W-W-D-L | Form (last 5) | W-D-W-L-W |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game | 1.70 |
| 1.10 | Goals against / game | 1.60 |
| 1.40 | xG for / game | 1.42 |
| 1.05 | xG against / game | 1.48 |
| 52% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 24% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Barcelona
- Z. SilvaDoubtful
Betis
- C. SilvaDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Barcelona Elo 1587 vs Betis 1466 (+121).
- Recent Form: Barcelona (L-W-W-D-L) vs Betis (W-D-W-L-W), last 5.
- Goals: Barcelona score 1.50 / concede 1.10 per game; Betis 1.70 / 1.60 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Barcelona average 1.40 xG, Betis 1.42 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Barcelona have won 52% of home games in the sample; Betis 24% away.
- Player Availability: Barcelona: 1 absent/doubtful; Betis: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Barcelona 11 days rest, Betis 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -1.20 for Barcelona over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage45%
- Team Strength (Elo)39%
- Recent Form8%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)7%
- Expected Goals (xG)1%
- Player Availability0%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 06:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.