La Liga – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 16:00Santiago BernabéuNot started
Real Madrid
4th • 19 Pts
Villarreal
7th • 17 Pts
Prediction Summary
49%
RMA Win
range 44%–55%
27%
Draw
range 25%–28%
24%
VIL Win
range 20%–28%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: RMA 1.63 · VIL 1.07
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
Under 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Real Madrid | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| 1616 | Elo rating | 1493 |
| W-D-L-D-W | Form (last 5) | L-L-D-W-W |
| 1.60 | Goals for / game | 0.80 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 0.90 |
| 1.38 | xG for / game | 0.96 |
| 1.20 | xG against / game | 0.97 |
| 52% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 29% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Real Madrid
- A. DuboisInjury
Villarreal
- L. CostaSuspension
- J. GarcíaDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Real Madrid Elo 1616 vs Villarreal 1493 (+123).
- Recent Form: Real Madrid (W-D-L-D-W) vs Villarreal (L-L-D-W-W), last 5.
- Goals: Real Madrid score 1.60 / concede 1.20 per game; Villarreal 0.80 / 0.90 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Real Madrid average 1.38 xG, Villarreal 0.96 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Real Madrid have won 52% of home games in the sample; Villarreal 29% away.
- Player Availability: Real Madrid: 1 absent/doubtful; Villarreal: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Real Madrid 11 days rest, Villarreal 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +0.80 for Real Madrid over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage47%
- Team Strength (Elo)41%
- Expected Goals (xG)5%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)5%
- Recent Form2%
- Player Availability1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 10:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.