La Liga – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 19:30MetropolitanoNot started
Atlético
5th • 19 Pts
Athletic
3rd • 21 Pts
Prediction Summary
46%
ATM Win
range 41%–52%
27%
Draw
range 26%–29%
27%
ATH Win
range 22%–31%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: ATM 1.55 · ATH 1.12
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Atlético | Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| 1565 | Elo rating | 1484 |
| L-D-D-D-D | Form (last 5) | L-W-L-D-L |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 1.30 |
| 1.31 | xG for / game | 1.39 |
| 1.17 | xG against / game | 1.17 |
| 52% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 14% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Atlético
- Y. CostaInjury
Athletic
No reported absences.
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Atlético Elo 1565 vs Athletic 1484 (+81).
- Recent Form: Atlético (L-D-D-D-D) vs Athletic (L-W-L-D-L), last 5.
- Goals: Atlético score 1.50 / concede 1.20 per game; Athletic 1.50 / 1.30 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Atlético average 1.31 xG, Athletic 1.39 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Atlético have won 52% of home games in the sample; Athletic 14% away.
- Player Availability: Atlético: 1 absent/doubtful; Athletic: 0.
- Schedule & Rest: Atlético 11 days rest, Athletic 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +0.60 for Atlético over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage53%
- Team Strength (Elo)30%
- Expected Goals (xG)8%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)4%
- Recent Form2%
- Player Availability2%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 13:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.