La Liga – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 12:00AnoetaNot started
Real Sociedad
6th • 19 Pts
Barcelona
2nd • 22 Pts
Prediction Summary
38%
RSO Win
range 34%–44%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
33%
BAR Win
range 29%–38%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: RSO 1.38 · BAR 1.27
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Real Sociedad | Barcelona | |
|---|---|---|
| 1490 | Elo rating | 1587 |
| W-L-W-W-L | Form (last 5) | L-W-W-D-L |
| 1.10 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 1.30 | Goals against / game | 1.10 |
| 1.15 | xG for / game | 1.40 |
| 1.31 | xG against / game | 1.05 |
| 48% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 43% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Real Sociedad
No reported absences.
Barcelona
- Z. RossiInjury
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Real Sociedad Elo 1490 vs Barcelona 1587 (-97).
- Recent Form: Real Sociedad (W-L-W-W-L) vs Barcelona (L-W-W-D-L), last 5.
- Goals: Real Sociedad score 1.10 / concede 1.30 per game; Barcelona 1.50 / 1.10 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Real Sociedad average 1.15 xG, Barcelona 1.40 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Real Sociedad have won 48% of home games in the sample; Barcelona 43% away.
- Player Availability: Real Sociedad: 0 absent/doubtful; Barcelona: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Real Sociedad 14 days rest, Barcelona 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -0.80 for Real Sociedad over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage49%
- Team Strength (Elo)34%
- Recent Form8%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)5%
- Expected Goals (xG)2%
- Player Availability2%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 06:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.