La Liga – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 16:00San MamésNot started
Athletic
3rd • 21 Pts
Sevilla
8th • 14 Pts
Prediction Summary
50%
ATH Win
range 45%–55%
26%
Draw
range 25%–28%
24%
SEV Win
range 20%–28%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: ATH 1.64 · SEV 1.06
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
Under 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Athletic | Sevilla | |
|---|---|---|
| 1484 | Elo rating | 1356 |
| L-W-L-D-L | Form (last 5) | W-D-L-L-D |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game | 0.70 |
| 1.30 | Goals against / game | 1.80 |
| 1.39 | xG for / game | 0.91 |
| 1.17 | xG against / game | 1.56 |
| 48% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 10% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Athletic
No reported absences.
Sevilla
- G. NovakInjury
- U. MoreauInjury
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Athletic Elo 1484 vs Sevilla 1356 (+128).
- Recent Form: Athletic (L-W-L-D-L) vs Sevilla (W-D-L-L-D), last 5.
- Goals: Athletic score 1.50 / concede 1.30 per game; Sevilla 0.70 / 1.80 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Athletic average 1.39 xG, Sevilla 0.91 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Athletic have won 48% of home games in the sample; Sevilla 10% away.
- Player Availability: Athletic: 0 absent/doubtful; Sevilla: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Athletic 14 days rest, Sevilla 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -0.20 for Athletic over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage44%
- Team Strength (Elo)40%
- Recent Form7%
- Expected Goals (xG)5%
- Player Availability3%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 10:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.