La Liga – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 19:30MetropolitanoNot started
Atlético
5th • 19 Pts
Real Madrid
4th • 19 Pts
Prediction Summary
40%
ATM Win
range 35%–45%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
32%
RMA Win
range 28%–37%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: ATM 1.40 · RMA 1.25
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Atlético | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 1565 | Elo rating | 1616 |
| L-D-D-D-D | Form (last 5) | W-D-L-D-W |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 1.20 |
| 1.31 | xG for / game | 1.38 |
| 1.17 | xG against / game | 1.20 |
| 52% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 52% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Atlético
No reported absences.
Real Madrid
- S. GarcíaInjury
- K. MüllerInjury
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Atlético Elo 1565 vs Real Madrid 1616 (-52).
- Recent Form: Atlético (L-D-D-D-D) vs Real Madrid (W-D-L-D-W), last 5.
- Goals: Atlético score 1.50 / concede 1.20 per game; Real Madrid 1.60 / 1.20 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Atlético average 1.31 xG, Real Madrid 1.38 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Atlético have won 52% of home games in the sample; Real Madrid 52% away.
- Player Availability: Atlético: 0 absent/doubtful; Real Madrid: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Atlético 14 days rest, Real Madrid 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -1.20 for Atlético over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage57%
- Team Strength (Elo)21%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)9%
- Recent Form6%
- Player Availability4%
- Expected Goals (xG)3%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 13:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.