Ligue 1 – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 12:00Roazhon ParkNot started
Rennes
8th • 12 Pts
PSG
2nd • 27 Pts
Prediction Summary
26%
REN Win
range 22%–30%
27%
Draw
range 26%–28%
47%
PSG Win
range 42%–53%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: REN 1.10 · PSG 1.58
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Rennes | PSG | |
|---|---|---|
| 1326 | Elo rating | 1689 |
| W-L-L-L-L | Form (last 5) | L-W-W-W-W |
| 0.70 | Goals for / game | 1.70 |
| 1.80 | Goals against / game | 0.90 |
| 0.89 | xG for / game | 1.49 |
| 1.47 | xG against / game | 1.02 |
| 19% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 67% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Rennes
No reported absences.
PSG
- R. SilvaSuspension
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Rennes Elo 1326 vs PSG 1689 (-363).
- Recent Form: Rennes (W-L-L-L-L) vs PSG (L-W-W-W-W), last 5.
- Goals: Rennes score 0.70 / concede 1.80 per game; PSG 1.70 / 0.90 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Rennes average 0.89 xG, PSG 1.49 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Rennes have won 19% of home games in the sample; PSG 67% away.
- Player Availability: Rennes: 0 absent/doubtful; PSG: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Rennes 8 days rest, PSG 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -0.80 for Rennes over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)65%
- Home Advantage25%
- Expected Goals (xG)4%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)3%
- Recent Form2%
- Player Availability1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 06:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.