Ligue 1 – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 14:30Bollaert-DelelisNot started
Lens
7th • 13 Pts
Marseille
3rd • 27 Pts
Prediction Summary
27%
RCL Win
range 23%–31%
27%
Draw
range 26%–29%
46%
OM Win
range 41%–51%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: RCL 1.13 · OM 1.55
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Lens | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| 1370 | Elo rating | 1701 |
| L-L-W-W-L | Form (last 5) | W-W-W-D-L |
| 0.60 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 1.40 | Goals against / game | 0.90 |
| 0.75 | xG for / game | 1.39 |
| 1.32 | xG against / game | 0.97 |
| 29% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 76% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Lens
- W. SchmidtSuspension
Marseille
- O. MüllerInjury
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Lens Elo 1370 vs Marseille 1701 (-331).
- Recent Form: Lens (L-L-W-W-L) vs Marseille (W-W-W-D-L), last 5.
- Goals: Lens score 0.60 / concede 1.40 per game; Marseille 1.60 / 0.90 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Lens average 0.75 xG, Marseille 1.39 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Lens have won 29% of home games in the sample; Marseille 76% away.
- Player Availability: Lens: 1 absent/doubtful; Marseille: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Lens 8 days rest, Marseille 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -1.60 for Lens over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)63%
- Home Advantage27%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)6%
- Expected Goals (xG)3%
- Recent Form1%
- Player Availability0%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 08:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.