Ligue 1 – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 16:00Allianz RivieraNot started
Nice
4th • 21 Pts
Monaco
1st • 28 Pts
Prediction Summary
37%
NIC Win
range 32%–42%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
35%
ASM Win
range 30%–40%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: NIC 1.35 · ASM 1.30
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Nice | Monaco | |
|---|---|---|
| 1482 | Elo rating | 1635 |
| W-W-L-L-W | Form (last 5) | L-W-W-L-W |
| 1.30 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 1.10 | Goals against / game | 0.80 |
| 1.23 | xG for / game | 1.48 |
| 1.05 | xG against / game | 0.94 |
| 43% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 48% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Nice
- N. DuboisSuspension
Monaco
No reported absences.
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Nice Elo 1482 vs Monaco 1635 (-152).
- Recent Form: Nice (W-W-L-L-W) vs Monaco (L-W-W-L-W), last 5.
- Goals: Nice score 1.30 / concede 1.10 per game; Monaco 1.60 / 0.80 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Nice average 1.23 xG, Monaco 1.48 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Nice have won 43% of home games in the sample; Monaco 48% away.
- Player Availability: Nice: 1 absent/doubtful; Monaco: 0.
- Schedule & Rest: Nice 8 days rest, Monaco 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +0.60 for Nice over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)45%
- Home Advantage42%
- Recent Form5%
- Expected Goals (xG)4%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)3%
- Player Availability2%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 10:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.