Ligue 1 – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 19:30Groupama StadiumNot started
Lyon
5th • 17 Pts
Lille
6th • 14 Pts
Prediction Summary
44%
OL Win
range 39%–49%
28%
Draw
range 26%–29%
28%
LIL Win
range 24%–33%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: OL 1.51 · LIL 1.16
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Lyon | Lille | |
|---|---|---|
| 1472 | Elo rating | 1453 |
| W-L-L-W-L | Form (last 5) | L-L-L-D-W |
| 1.20 | Goals for / game | 1.30 |
| 1.60 | Goals against / game | 1.50 |
| 1.26 | xG for / game | 1.25 |
| 1.43 | xG against / game | 1.53 |
| 38% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 24% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Lyon
- B. GarcíaDoubtful
Lille
No reported absences.
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Lyon Elo 1472 vs Lille 1453 (+19).
- Recent Form: Lyon (W-L-L-W-L) vs Lille (L-L-L-D-W), last 5.
- Goals: Lyon score 1.20 / concede 1.60 per game; Lille 1.30 / 1.50 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Lyon average 1.26 xG, Lille 1.25 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Lyon have won 38% of home games in the sample; Lille 24% away.
- Player Availability: Lyon: 1 absent/doubtful; Lille: 0.
- Schedule & Rest: Lyon 8 days rest, Lille 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -0.20 for Lyon over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage81%
- Team Strength (Elo)11%
- Recent Form4%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)2%
- Player Availability1%
- Expected Goals (xG)1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 13:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.