Ligue 1 – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 12:00Parc des PrincesNot started
PSG
2nd • 27 Pts
Lens
7th • 13 Pts
Prediction Summary
60%
PSG Win
range 55%–66%
23%
Draw
range 21%–25%
16%
RCL Win
range 13%–20%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 11% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: PSG 1.93 · RCL 0.91
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
Under 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS – Yes
52%
BTTS – No
48%
Team Comparison
| PSG | Lens | |
|---|---|---|
| 1689 | Elo rating | 1370 |
| L-W-W-W-W | Form (last 5) | L-L-W-W-L |
| 1.70 | Goals for / game | 0.60 |
| 0.90 | Goals against / game | 1.40 |
| 1.49 | xG for / game | 0.75 |
| 1.02 | xG against / game | 1.32 |
| 62% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 10% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
PSG
- T. NovakInjury
Lens
- E. MartinDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: PSG Elo 1689 vs Lens 1370 (+319).
- Recent Form: PSG (L-W-W-W-W) vs Lens (L-L-W-W-L), last 5.
- Goals: PSG score 1.70 / concede 0.90 per game; Lens 0.60 / 1.40 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: PSG average 1.49 xG, Lens 0.75 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: PSG have won 62% of home games in the sample; Lens 10% away.
- Player Availability: PSG: 1 absent/doubtful; Lens: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: PSG 11 days rest, Lens 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +1.00 for PSG over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)64%
- Home Advantage28%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)4%
- Expected Goals (xG)2%
- Recent Form1%
- Player Availability1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 06:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.