Ligue 1 – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 14:30Roazhon ParkNot started
Rennes
8th • 12 Pts
Nice
4th • 21 Pts
Prediction Summary
34%
REN Win
range 30%–39%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
37%
NIC Win
range 33%–43%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: REN 1.29 · NIC 1.35
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Rennes | Nice | |
|---|---|---|
| 1326 | Elo rating | 1482 |
| W-L-L-L-L | Form (last 5) | W-W-L-L-W |
| 0.70 | Goals for / game | 1.30 |
| 1.80 | Goals against / game | 1.10 |
| 0.89 | xG for / game | 1.23 |
| 1.47 | xG against / game | 1.05 |
| 19% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 29% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Rennes
No reported absences.
Nice
- U. SmithSuspension
- I. FernandesDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Rennes Elo 1326 vs Nice 1482 (-156).
- Recent Form: Rennes (W-L-L-L-L) vs Nice (W-W-L-L-W), last 5.
- Goals: Rennes score 0.70 / concede 1.80 per game; Nice 1.30 / 1.10 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Rennes average 0.89 xG, Nice 1.23 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Rennes have won 19% of home games in the sample; Nice 29% away.
- Player Availability: Rennes: 0 absent/doubtful; Nice: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Rennes 11 days rest, Nice 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference 0.00 for Rennes over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)47%
- Home Advantage43%
- Recent Form5%
- Player Availability2%
- Expected Goals (xG)2%
- Schedule & Rest0%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 08:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.