Ligue 1 – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 16:00VélodromeNot started
Marseille
3rd • 27 Pts
Lyon
5th • 17 Pts
Prediction Summary
56%
OM Win
range 51%–61%
25%
Draw
range 23%–26%
19%
OL Win
range 16%–23%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 12% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: OM 1.80 · OL 0.97
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
Under 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS – Yes
53%
BTTS – No
47%
Team Comparison
| Marseille | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| 1701 | Elo rating | 1472 |
| W-W-W-D-L | Form (last 5) | W-L-L-W-L |
| 1.60 | Goals for / game | 1.20 |
| 0.90 | Goals against / game | 1.60 |
| 1.39 | xG for / game | 1.26 |
| 0.97 | xG against / game | 1.43 |
| 52% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 38% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Marseille
- H. BianchiInjury
- A. MartinDoubtful
Lyon
- W. RossiSuspension
- W. MartinSuspension
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Marseille Elo 1701 vs Lyon 1472 (+229).
- Recent Form: Marseille (W-W-W-D-L) vs Lyon (W-L-L-W-L), last 5.
- Goals: Marseille score 1.60 / concede 0.90 per game; Lyon 1.20 / 1.60 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Marseille average 1.39 xG, Lyon 1.26 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Marseille have won 52% of home games in the sample; Lyon 38% away.
- Player Availability: Marseille: 2 absent/doubtful; Lyon: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Marseille 11 days rest, Lyon 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +1.40 for Marseille over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)55%
- Home Advantage34%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)6%
- Expected Goals (xG)4%
- Player Availability1%
- Recent Form0%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 10:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.