Ligue 1 – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 19:30Louis IINot started
Monaco
1st • 28 Pts
Lille
6th • 14 Pts
Prediction Summary
55%
ASM Win
range 49%–60%
25%
Draw
range 23%–27%
20%
LIL Win
range 17%–24%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 12% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: ASM 1.76 · LIL 0.99
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
Under 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS – Yes
53%
BTTS – No
47%
Team Comparison
| Monaco | Lille | |
|---|---|---|
| 1635 | Elo rating | 1453 |
| L-W-W-L-W | Form (last 5) | L-L-L-D-W |
| 1.60 | Goals for / game | 1.30 |
| 0.80 | Goals against / game | 1.50 |
| 1.48 | xG for / game | 1.25 |
| 0.94 | xG against / game | 1.53 |
| 62% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 24% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Monaco
No reported absences.
Lille
- K. GarcíaDoubtful
- Z. GarcíaSuspension
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Monaco Elo 1635 vs Lille 1453 (+182).
- Recent Form: Monaco (L-W-W-L-W) vs Lille (L-L-L-D-W), last 5.
- Goals: Monaco score 1.60 / concede 0.80 per game; Lille 1.30 / 1.50 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Monaco average 1.48 xG, Lille 1.25 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Monaco have won 62% of home games in the sample; Lille 24% away.
- Player Availability: Monaco: 0 absent/doubtful; Lille: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Monaco 11 days rest, Lille 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +0.80 for Monaco over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)51%
- Home Advantage39%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)4%
- Recent Form2%
- Player Availability2%
- Expected Goals (xG)1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 13:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.