Ligue 1 – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 14:30Groupama StadiumNot started
Lyon
5th • 17 Pts
Lens
7th • 13 Pts
Prediction Summary
49%
OL Win
range 43%–54%
27%
Draw
range 25%–28%
25%
RCL Win
range 21%–29%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: OL 1.61 · RCL 1.08
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
Under 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Lyon | Lens | |
|---|---|---|
| 1472 | Elo rating | 1370 |
| W-L-L-W-L | Form (last 5) | L-L-W-W-L |
| 1.20 | Goals for / game | 0.60 |
| 1.60 | Goals against / game | 1.40 |
| 1.26 | xG for / game | 0.75 |
| 1.43 | xG against / game | 1.32 |
| 38% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 10% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Lyon
- O. DuboisInjury
- Z. NovakSuspension
Lens
- T. CostaSuspension
- S. RossiDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Lyon Elo 1472 vs Lens 1370 (+102).
- Recent Form: Lyon (W-L-L-W-L) vs Lens (L-L-W-W-L), last 5.
- Goals: Lyon score 1.20 / concede 1.60 per game; Lens 0.60 / 1.40 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Lyon average 1.26 xG, Lens 0.75 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Lyon have won 38% of home games in the sample; Lens 10% away.
- Player Availability: Lyon: 2 absent/doubtful; Lens: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Lyon 14 days rest, Lens 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +0.80 for Lyon over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage52%
- Team Strength (Elo)38%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)6%
- Recent Form3%
- Player Availability1%
- Expected Goals (xG)0%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 08:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.