Ligue 1 – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 16:00Pierre-MauroyNot started
Lille
6th • 14 Pts
Rennes
8th • 12 Pts
Prediction Summary
48%
LIL Win
range 43%–54%
27%
Draw
range 25%–28%
25%
REN Win
range 21%–29%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: LIL 1.61 · REN 1.09
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Lille | Rennes | |
|---|---|---|
| 1453 | Elo rating | 1326 |
| L-L-L-D-W | Form (last 5) | W-L-L-L-L |
| 1.30 | Goals for / game | 0.70 |
| 1.50 | Goals against / game | 1.80 |
| 1.25 | xG for / game | 0.89 |
| 1.53 | xG against / game | 1.47 |
| 33% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 10% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Lille
- A. SmithInjury
Rennes
- U. KaneDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Lille Elo 1453 vs Rennes 1326 (+127).
- Recent Form: Lille (L-L-L-D-W) vs Rennes (W-L-L-L-L), last 5.
- Goals: Lille score 1.30 / concede 1.50 per game; Rennes 0.70 / 1.80 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Lille average 1.25 xG, Rennes 0.89 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Lille have won 33% of home games in the sample; Rennes 10% away.
- Player Availability: Lille: 1 absent/doubtful; Rennes: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Lille 14 days rest, Rennes 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -0.20 for Lille over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage48%
- Team Strength (Elo)43%
- Expected Goals (xG)3%
- Recent Form3%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)1%
- Player Availability1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 10:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.