Ligue 1 – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 19:30Louis IINot started
Monaco
1st • 28 Pts
Marseille
3rd • 27 Pts
Prediction Summary
41%
ASM Win
range 36%–46%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
31%
OM Win
range 27%–36%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: ASM 1.43 · OM 1.22
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Monaco | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| 1635 | Elo rating | 1701 |
| L-W-W-L-W | Form (last 5) | W-W-W-D-L |
| 1.60 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 0.80 | Goals against / game | 0.90 |
| 1.48 | xG for / game | 1.39 |
| 0.94 | xG against / game | 0.97 |
| 62% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 76% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Monaco
- M. DuboisSuspension
Marseille
- U. SchmidtSuspension
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Monaco Elo 1635 vs Marseille 1701 (-67).
- Recent Form: Monaco (L-W-W-L-W) vs Marseille (W-W-W-D-L), last 5.
- Goals: Monaco score 1.60 / concede 0.80 per game; Marseille 1.60 / 0.90 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Monaco average 1.48 xG, Marseille 1.39 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Monaco have won 62% of home games in the sample; Marseille 76% away.
- Player Availability: Monaco: 1 absent/doubtful; Marseille: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Monaco 14 days rest, Marseille 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +0.20 for Monaco over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage61%
- Team Strength (Elo)29%
- Expected Goals (xG)8%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)2%
- Recent Form0%
- Player Availability0%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 13:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.