Serie A – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 12:00Artemio FranchiNot started
Fiorentina
8th • 14 Pts
Inter
1st • 34 Pts
Prediction Summary
24%
FIO Win
range 20%–29%
27%
Draw
range 25%–28%
49%
INT Win
range 44%–54%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: FIO 1.08 · INT 1.62
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
Under 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Fiorentina | Inter | |
|---|---|---|
| 1367 | Elo rating | 1731 |
| D-W-W-L-L | Form (last 5) | W-D-W-W-W |
| 1.10 | Goals for / game | 1.90 |
| 1.80 | Goals against / game | 0.40 |
| 1.03 | xG for / game | 1.54 |
| 1.65 | xG against / game | 0.87 |
| 29% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 67% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Fiorentina
- P. LopezInjury
Inter
No reported absences.
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Fiorentina Elo 1367 vs Inter 1731 (-365).
- Recent Form: Fiorentina (D-W-W-L-L) vs Inter (W-D-W-W-W), last 5.
- Goals: Fiorentina score 1.10 / concede 1.80 per game; Inter 1.90 / 0.40 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Fiorentina average 1.03 xG, Inter 1.54 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Fiorentina have won 29% of home games in the sample; Inter 67% away.
- Player Availability: Fiorentina: 1 absent/doubtful; Inter: 0.
- Schedule & Rest: Fiorentina 8 days rest, Inter 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -3.80 for Fiorentina over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)65%
- Home Advantage25%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)7%
- Expected Goals (xG)1%
- Player Availability1%
- Recent Form0%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 06:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.