Serie A – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 14:30Stadio OlimpicoNot started
Lazio
5th • 17 Pts
AC Milan
6th • 15 Pts
Prediction Summary
39%
LAZ Win
range 34%–44%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
33%
MIL Win
range 28%–38%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: LAZ 1.39 · MIL 1.25
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Lazio | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| 1402 | Elo rating | 1520 |
| W-W-L-W-W | Form (last 5) | L-L-D-W-L |
| 1.20 | Goals for / game | 1.10 |
| 1.50 | Goals against / game | 1.80 |
| 1.27 | xG for / game | 1.12 |
| 1.39 | xG against / game | 1.51 |
| 29% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 43% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Lazio
- P. MüllerInjury
AC Milan
No reported absences.
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Lazio Elo 1402 vs AC Milan 1520 (-118).
- Recent Form: Lazio (W-W-L-W-W) vs AC Milan (L-L-D-W-L), last 5.
- Goals: Lazio score 1.20 / concede 1.50 per game; AC Milan 1.10 / 1.80 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Lazio average 1.27 xG, AC Milan 1.12 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Lazio have won 29% of home games in the sample; AC Milan 43% away.
- Player Availability: Lazio: 1 absent/doubtful; AC Milan: 0.
- Schedule & Rest: Lazio 8 days rest, AC Milan 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -2.00 for Lazio over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage37%
- Team Strength (Elo)30%
- Recent Form12%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)10%
- Expected Goals (xG)10%
- Player Availability1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 08:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.