Serie A – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 16:00Stadio OlimpicoNot started
Roma
3rd • 22 Pts
Juventus
2nd • 22 Pts
Prediction Summary
36%
ROM Win
range 32%–41%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
36%
JUV Win
range 31%–41%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: ROM 1.33 · JUV 1.31
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Roma | Juventus | |
|---|---|---|
| 1482 | Elo rating | 1570 |
| L-L-D-L-W | Form (last 5) | W-L-W-L-W |
| 1.30 | Goals for / game | 2.20 |
| 1.40 | Goals against / game | 1.20 |
| 1.33 | xG for / game | 1.91 |
| 1.30 | xG against / game | 1.05 |
| 43% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 33% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Roma
- K. MüllerSuspension
- F. MoreauInjury
Juventus
- H. SilvaSuspension
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Roma Elo 1482 vs Juventus 1570 (-88).
- Recent Form: Roma (L-L-D-L-W) vs Juventus (W-L-W-L-W), last 5.
- Goals: Roma score 1.30 / concede 1.40 per game; Juventus 2.20 / 1.20 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Roma average 1.33 xG, Juventus 1.91 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Roma have won 43% of home games in the sample; Juventus 33% away.
- Player Availability: Roma: 2 absent/doubtful; Juventus: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Roma 8 days rest, Juventus 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference 0.00 for Roma over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage52%
- Team Strength (Elo)32%
- Expected Goals (xG)9%
- Recent Form6%
- Player Availability2%
- Schedule & Rest0%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 10:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.