Serie A – Matchday 1
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 – 19:30Gewiss StadiumNot started
Atalanta
7th • 15 Pts
Napoli
4th • 18 Pts
Prediction Summary
42%
ATA Win
range 37%–48%
28%
Draw
range 26%–29%
30%
NAP Win
range 26%–35%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: ATA 1.46 · NAP 1.19
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Atalanta | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|
| 1444 | Elo rating | 1484 |
| L-D-L-W-L | Form (last 5) | D-W-L-L-L |
| 0.80 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 1.30 | Goals against / game | 1.70 |
| 0.98 | xG for / game | 1.37 |
| 1.19 | xG against / game | 1.61 |
| 38% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 24% |
| 8 | Rest days | 8 |
Player Availability
Atalanta
No reported absences.
Napoli
- L. SilvaDoubtful
- M. BianchiSuspension
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Atalanta Elo 1444 vs Napoli 1484 (-40).
- Recent Form: Atalanta (L-D-L-W-L) vs Napoli (D-W-L-L-L), last 5.
- Goals: Atalanta score 0.80 / concede 1.30 per game; Napoli 1.50 / 1.70 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Atalanta average 0.98 xG, Napoli 1.37 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Atalanta have won 38% of home games in the sample; Napoli 24% away.
- Player Availability: Atalanta: 0 absent/doubtful; Napoli: 2.
- Schedule & Rest: Atalanta 8 days rest, Napoli 8 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +0.20 for Atalanta over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage68%
- Team Strength (Elo)19%
- Expected Goals (xG)5%
- Player Availability4%
- Recent Form2%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)2%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 9, 2026 – 13:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.