Serie A – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 12:00San SiroNot started
Inter
1st • 34 Pts
Lazio
5th • 17 Pts
Prediction Summary
59%
INT Win
range 54%–64%
24%
Draw
range 22%–25%
17%
LAZ Win
range 14%–21%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 11% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: INT 1.89 · LAZ 0.92
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
Under 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS – Yes
52%
BTTS – No
48%
Team Comparison
| Inter | Lazio | |
|---|---|---|
| 1731 | Elo rating | 1402 |
| W-D-W-W-W | Form (last 5) | W-W-L-W-W |
| 1.90 | Goals for / game | 1.20 |
| 0.40 | Goals against / game | 1.50 |
| 1.54 | xG for / game | 1.27 |
| 0.87 | xG against / game | 1.39 |
| 67% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 19% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Inter
No reported absences.
Lazio
- L. KaneSuspension
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Inter Elo 1731 vs Lazio 1402 (+329).
- Recent Form: Inter (W-D-W-W-W) vs Lazio (W-W-L-W-W), last 5.
- Goals: Inter score 1.90 / concede 0.40 per game; Lazio 1.20 / 1.50 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Inter average 1.54 xG, Lazio 1.27 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Inter have won 67% of home games in the sample; Lazio 19% away.
- Player Availability: Inter: 0 absent/doubtful; Lazio: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Inter 11 days rest, Lazio 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +1.20 for Inter over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)60%
- Home Advantage26%
- Expected Goals (xG)5%
- Recent Form4%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)4%
- Player Availability1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 06:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.