Serie A – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 14:30Artemio FranchiNot started
Fiorentina
8th • 14 Pts
Roma
3rd • 22 Pts
Prediction Summary
37%
FIO Win
range 32%–42%
28%
Draw
range 27%–29%
35%
ROM Win
range 30%–40%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: FIO 1.34 · ROM 1.30
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Fiorentina | Roma | |
|---|---|---|
| 1367 | Elo rating | 1482 |
| D-W-W-L-L | Form (last 5) | L-L-D-L-W |
| 1.10 | Goals for / game | 1.30 |
| 1.80 | Goals against / game | 1.40 |
| 1.03 | xG for / game | 1.33 |
| 1.65 | xG against / game | 1.30 |
| 29% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 33% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Fiorentina
No reported absences.
Roma
- S. SilvaDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Fiorentina Elo 1367 vs Roma 1482 (-116).
- Recent Form: Fiorentina (D-W-W-L-L) vs Roma (L-L-D-L-W), last 5.
- Goals: Fiorentina score 1.10 / concede 1.80 per game; Roma 1.30 / 1.40 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Fiorentina average 1.03 xG, Roma 1.33 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Fiorentina have won 29% of home games in the sample; Roma 33% away.
- Player Availability: Fiorentina: 0 absent/doubtful; Roma: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Fiorentina 11 days rest, Roma 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -1.40 for Fiorentina over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage44%
- Team Strength (Elo)36%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)8%
- Recent Form8%
- Expected Goals (xG)3%
- Player Availability1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 08:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.