Serie A – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 16:00San SiroNot started
AC Milan
6th • 15 Pts
Atalanta
7th • 15 Pts
Prediction Summary
45%
MIL Win
range 40%–50%
27%
Draw
range 26%–29%
27%
ATA Win
range 23%–32%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: MIL 1.53 · ATA 1.14
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| AC Milan | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|
| 1520 | Elo rating | 1444 |
| L-L-D-W-L | Form (last 5) | L-D-L-W-L |
| 1.10 | Goals for / game | 0.80 |
| 1.80 | Goals against / game | 1.30 |
| 1.12 | xG for / game | 0.98 |
| 1.51 | xG against / game | 1.19 |
| 48% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 33% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
AC Milan
- V. MüllerInjury
- Y. LopezSuspension
Atalanta
No reported absences.
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: AC Milan Elo 1520 vs Atalanta 1444 (+76).
- Recent Form: AC Milan (L-L-D-W-L) vs Atalanta (L-D-L-W-L), last 5.
- Goals: AC Milan score 1.10 / concede 1.80 per game; Atalanta 0.80 / 1.30 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: AC Milan average 1.12 xG, Atalanta 0.98 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: AC Milan have won 48% of home games in the sample; Atalanta 33% away.
- Player Availability: AC Milan: 2 absent/doubtful; Atalanta: 0.
- Schedule & Rest: AC Milan 11 days rest, Atalanta 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +0.20 for AC Milan over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage54%
- Team Strength (Elo)29%
- Expected Goals (xG)9%
- Player Availability4%
- Recent Form2%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 10:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.