Serie A – Matchday 2
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 – 19:30Allianz StadiumNot started
Juventus
2nd • 22 Pts
Napoli
4th • 18 Pts
Prediction Summary
50%
JUV Win
range 44%–55%
26%
Draw
range 25%–28%
24%
NAP Win
range 20%–28%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: JUV 1.63 · NAP 1.07
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
Under 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Juventus | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|
| 1570 | Elo rating | 1484 |
| W-L-W-L-W | Form (last 5) | D-W-L-L-L |
| 2.20 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 1.70 |
| 1.91 | xG for / game | 1.37 |
| 1.05 | xG against / game | 1.61 |
| 43% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 24% |
| 11 | Rest days | 11 |
Player Availability
Juventus
- S. NovakInjury
- M. SchmidtInjury
Napoli
No reported absences.
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Juventus Elo 1570 vs Napoli 1484 (+86).
- Recent Form: Juventus (W-L-W-L-W) vs Napoli (D-W-L-L-L), last 5.
- Goals: Juventus score 2.20 / concede 1.20 per game; Napoli 1.50 / 1.70 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Juventus average 1.91 xG, Napoli 1.37 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Juventus have won 43% of home games in the sample; Napoli 24% away.
- Player Availability: Juventus: 2 absent/doubtful; Napoli: 0.
- Schedule & Rest: Juventus 11 days rest, Napoli 11 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -0.40 for Juventus over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage47%
- Team Strength (Elo)29%
- Expected Goals (xG)13%
- Recent Form6%
- Player Availability3%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)2%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 12, 2026 – 13:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.